Sitting Back

Sold ARR at 6.40... small loss but now sitting on 80% cash.. waiting for a hard dip to buy my beautiful dividend plays..  Just watching this madness.

WatchList
*CIM
*ARR
*AT
*VCV ---> really interested because this is a very defensive Municipal Bond Fund
*AGNC

DOW cant make up its mind

DOW did not rally enough for me to short the market with EDZ. While at the same time, ARR, AT, and AGNC did not pullback to the entry points I am waiting for. Therefore I did not trade today. ARR dividends finally calculated into my positions.

Net Asset Value= 3282.05(Cash and Assets) , ( +9.66 from starting point)

Cash buying power= $1854.35

If you look at what is circled in red, you will see that my dividends from ARR automatically reinvested. I sold ARR a while back so only brought in $15 dollars this month from it. It reinvested for one share, and paid me the rest of the cash left over from the dividend. Two good things came from this, I will receive more dividends from the additional share I received, as well as lowering my avg price for ARR. If you notice yesterdays posting my avg share price was $7.10. Now it is $7.04. This puts me in better position in the long run. GOOD NEWS!

Trade Executions I Made Today

None

Market Analysis

DOW

I do not feel the need to post the entire chart this time. Resistance at (44) day Moving Average still stands. Support still at low price support from August 22^nd. In other words, support at 10600, resistance at 11254. The indicators do not seem to lean a certain way. Trade in between that range. Watch for news that could make market break support or resistance. The chart is not showing a reversal candle, so Monday to me is unknown.

This is intraday chart for DOW. Alot of fluctuation today.

NEWS

News are not good. Showing statistics comparing it to the 08 crash. Could bring a continuation of the downturn.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-drop-in-echo-of-tough-quarter-2011-09-30

Possible entry points for Monday

ARR- 6.70

AGNC- 26.05

AT-13.80

LETS ANALYZE ARR (Armour Reit)

This is just a basic description. Notice the words "mortgage-back securities issued by or guaranteed by U.S. Government agencies..."  This means that all the assets this company owns on its balance sheet, are secured by the US government. 

Look at that beautiful dividend. For every $100 dollars you insert into this stock, you will earn roughly $19.25 just for holding this bad boy yearly) Comes out to be about .11 cents a month per share which is its monthly dividend currently)

Look at the P/E. Its very low which signals a good buy. It more or less means you are paying six dollars for every dollar the company earns  in a single year. (Apple aka AAPL has a PE of 15.10 for comparison)

This company is paying out 90 percent income for an entire year in dividends. It made 12 million dollars in revenue. The company is making money. (High Revenue = Continuation of Dividends)

Benjamin Graham was Warren Buffets mentor. When running ARR's fundamentals through the graham formula, we find that this stock is currently very undervalued. The price indicated by the formula is the price that it is valued at according to its fundamentals. 

 Current price of the stock = $6.80/share

Grahams value formula = $11.55/share

Potential Percentage Gain=69.81%

Realize ARR is a longterm play that I am consistently playing. You have a value play here, as well as collecting 19% dividends a year. I am playing this for years to come. 

Even if in 5 years your investment value does not change, you will double your money with just collecting the dividends, not to forget auto-reinvesting growth.

 Happy Trading! From OC, CA.
H2o

DOW rallied off news...whats tomorrow?

Woke up to see the futures up and the market rallying. I asked myself where did I go wrong? I loaded up market news, and the market was pumped by positive employment figures. It was also rallying off of news from Europe. Turns out another country voted to approve a European bailout. Of course we would get rallying from this. Even after the morning rally which ended 4.5 hours into trading, it was still unable to break the (44) moving average that I posted on yesterdays blog in a chart. I will be posting an updated DOW chart showing the market still unable to break through resistance. 4.5 hours into trading (11 am Pacific Time), the market began to pull back as I originally fore-casted. The DOW being up 250 points or so slipped back into negatives. Being up around 50 dollars in EDZ, I knew if the market continued downwards, I was going to have a great day. My long plays were slipping back of course following the market, but they are dividend plays, so that is the least of my worries. Turns out positive market news of another country approving the European bailout sparked the DOW and I quickly played the transition, sold EDZ, which brought me a small profit. I am more or less even from two days ago now. Nothing we can do about news coming out. Only try to play the transition. Moral of the story, there is no way to predict market news, only transition.

Net Asset Value= 3268.37(Cash and Assets) , (-$4.02 from starting point)

Cash buying power= $1849.79

Trade Executions I Made Today

EDZ- Sold 21 shares, 29.08

Sold EDZ to lock in some profits. The profits acquired from this trade covered selling costs thus far. I feel I am in good position from here.

MARKET ANALYSIS FOR TOMORROW

DOW

*Today the Dow (DJIA) rallied from positive economic news, from then it pulled back, then rallied again. Not sure what tomorrow will bring.

*Chart Indicators : W%R- Crossed upwards ( buy) , MACD- Sideways (Hold) , RSI – verge of crossing (buy/hold)

The indicators from today indicate the DOW may have some upward movement tomorrow.

The DOW appears to have some movement upward. It still is unable to break through the (44) day moving average (circled in green), so I may wait for market to rally to resistance point, then purchase EDZ again for the ride down. Or if market does go down, may pick up some ARR, AGNC, or AT if they hit support.

NEWS

*Rather positive. May indicate rally tomorrow morning.

GENERAL INFORMATION

As of right now, I am not completely sure which way it will head. I have a plan to pick up EDZ if it hits resistance, or to watch for entry points on ARR, AT, or AGNC if the market pullsback. If I pick up EDZ at (44) day resistance, and it seems to break through, I may cut EDZ loose because I am on the wrong side of the trade.

Possible entry points for tomorrow

ARR- 6.70

AGNC- 26.00

AT-13.75

Happy Trading! From OC, CA.
H2o

9-28-11- some profits..tomorrow should be great!

Today was nearly exactly what I predicted. I expected reversal of the Dow, although I expected it to come a little later. The market rallied from opening for three hours or so, and then I began to notice the reversal happening. I then sold ARR at the days high, and bought EDZ. As the Dow pulled back 200 points or so, EDZ was making me money. Tomorrow I expect the market to pullback even more, so I decided instead of locking in profits with EDZ, I will continue to hold for tomorrow's possible market decline.

Net Asset Value= 3293.05 (Cash and Assets) , +$26.03 from Yesterday

Cash buying power= $1244.10

Trade Executions I Made Today

ARR-sell, 120 shares, 6.97

EDZ- buy, 21 shares, 27.96

I sold ARR to minimize losses in the coming market decline. I hold some ARR for the high dividends. I am actually ahead in ARR because the dividends I have received from ARR this past year exceed loss in value easily. EDZ I am holding as a way to short the market.

MARKET ANALYSIS FOR TOMORROW

DOW

*Today the Dow (DJIA) rallied until around 9:30 pacific time, from then it pulled back. I expect it to pullback more for tomorrow.

*Chart Indicators : W%R- Crossed downward ( may indicate waiting to buy/ sell) , MACD- Sideways (Hold) , RSI – Failed to cross (hold/ sell)

The indicators appear to be showing resistance, and signal possible downturn for tomorrow. I am betting on market coming down.

The DOW seemed to have hit a resistance that I did not pick up on yesterday. It cannot break the 44 day moving average (circled in green), another reason why I think it will be coming down tomorrow. I mistakenly thought the 50 day would be the resistance. I adjusted quickly, but could have had a better entry into EDZ.

THE FUTURES

NEWS

*News this afternoon are rather negative, which signals a possible sell off early morning. This is good news if you are shorting the market.

GENERAL INFORMATION

I am looking to pick up EHI, a diversified bond fund which pays monthly dividends around 9 annually.

Will pick up ARR, AGNC, and AT on a hard dip. Even after tomorrow, I do not feel they will be in position to buy, so not sure of an entry price for any of them yet. Will speculate tomorrow and see where the momentum is heading.

Happy Trading! From OC, CA.
H2o

9-27-11

Today is my first day logging every move I make regarding my investments. If you have any suggestions on how to format my blogs more efficiently or clear, let me know so I can make adjustments.This is for personal growth, so that I may learn from my mistakes, and remember why I made the moves I did.

Net Asset Value= 3272.39 (Cash and Assets)

Cash buying power= $1004.80

ARR- 243 shares, purchase price 7.21 , closed today at 6.92, down $71.51

AGNC- 21 shares, purchase price 27.36, closed 27.43, up $1.44

Trade Executions Today

Sold AGNC- 20 shares, 27.53, closed 27.43

Sold AT- 31 shares, 14.73, closed 14.69

Small profit with AT, small profit with AGNC. Waiting for a lower dip to pick them right back up.

MARKET ANALYSIS FOR TOMORROW

Dow

*Today the Dow (DJIA)rallied peaking 300 points while closing up 147 points. It closed at 11190, and according to the chart will be hitting resistance around 11480.

*Chart Indicators : W%R- Crossed (buy), MACD- Crossed (buy) , RSI – Crossing (buy)

According to the chart, it looks like the Dow may have another up day tomorrow.

((http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p03590542076&r=5892 ))

Since the Dow is so close to resistance, I will be tracking it to its high point and shorting the market via EDZ. EDZ is an inverse hedge fund, meaning when market goes down, it goes up in price. So its a way to cancel out your losses on your regular investment plays. I hope for a rally in the morning so I can get a lower price. Regardless I should be getting in tomorrow for EDZ.

News

*News this afternoon is rather positive, with few people believing the rallies are truly value plays. For me I think it will be more positive for tomorrow.

((http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-in-rally-mode-on-europe-hopes-2011-09-27))

GENERAL INFORMATION

ARR has strong financial fundamentals. It is undervalued under the grahams value filter, pays monthly dividends which equates to 19-20 percent of your total investment yearly. I am actually getting a dividend payment tomorrow, although I have it auto-reinvesting. Although it has short term debt, the fundamentals show long term debt being almost non-existant. I may sell half tomorrow, and wait for another market dip since the DOW is nearly peaking. ARR's chart looks like it may take a dip here. Maybe $6.70.

AGNC literally same thing as ARR, although it breaks the 19-20 percent dividend quarterly meaning 4 payments. Enter around $26 per share.

AT is an electric company with about an 8 percent annual dividend. This dividend is distributed monthly. It has great fundamentals, and is also very undervalued. Just had a merger. Will be waiting for another dip to accumulate more shares. As of right now, I forecast $13.80